2014 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast for BC

Consumer demand has really gone up this year and is expected to remain at a more elevated level through 2015. With historically low mortgage rates to support the demand, the housing market is also being underpinned by a more robust economy and associated job growth, strong migration and consumer confidence.

The BC MLS residential sales are forecast to increase 15.1 per cent to 83,900 units this year. Stronger economic conditions are expected to be somewhat offset by higher interest rates later next year, and keep home sales from advancing much further. As a result, MLS residential sales are forecast to edge up a further 1.2 per cent to 84,900 units in 2015. The 15-year average is 80,400 unit sales and a record 106,300 MLS residential sales were recorded in 2005.  

The average MLS residential price for the province is forecast to increase 6 per cent to a record $569,800 this year and a further 1.2 per cent to $574,300 in 2015. The new construction activity is generally keeping pace with population and household growth, keeping supply in line with consumer demand. BC housing starts are forecast to increase 4.6 per cent to 28,300 units this year and a further 1.4 per cent to 28,700 units in 2015.

BC Commercial Leading Indicator Edges Lower in Fourth Quarter

BC Commercial Leading Indicator Edges Lower in Fourth Quarter

Vancouver, BC – February 28, 2013. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) edged lower by 1.3 points in the fourth quarter of 2012, to an index level of 111.3. On a year-over-year basis, the CLI was up 0.8 per cent during the fourth quarter of 2012.

The decline in the CLI translates to a slight rolling over in the underlying index trend, signaling a potential slowing of activity for the first half of 2013.

"A modest slowing of commercial real estate activity is in general accord with 2013 being somewhat of a transition year for the economy," said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. "We anticipate that slower growth through the first half of 2013 will give way to a more robust economy in 2014 and therefore an increase in commercial market activity."

To view the full BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator index, click here.

For more information, please contact: 

Brendon Ogmundson Economist Direct: 604.742.2796 Mobile: 604.505.6793 bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca

Damian Stathonikos Director of Communications and Public Affairs Direct: 604.742.2793 Mobile: 778.990.1320 dstathonikos@bcrea.bc.ca

- See more at: http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/news-and-publications/news-room/news-releases/commercial-leading-indicator-news-release#sthash.AnvLkeLZ.dpuf

BC Home Sales Remain Subdued but Stable

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 3,410 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during January, up 1.8 per cent from December on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, but down 13.6 per cent compared to January 2012. Similarly, total sales volume increased 3.8 per cent SA, but declined 16 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $514,134, up 3.2 percent from December, however, down 2.7 per cent from a year ago.

"Despite a modest uptick in consumer demand last month, home sales have remained relatively stable at a noticeably lower level since last August," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "Continuing low mortgage interest rates combined with an easing back of home prices in some areas is expected to trend home sales higher during the spring and summer months."

"The ratio of home sales to new listings is indicative of a balanced market at 42 per cent," added Muir. "However, there remains a backlog of existing home listings to either sell or be pulled off the market before supply and demand can be considered in check."
Dramatic swings in average price statistics caused by a surge and subsequent pullback in luxury home sales appear to be near an end. The year-over-year change in average prices now more closely reflects the home price indices in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley."

My Listing of the Week

360 Cob Lane, Upper Mission Kelowna, BC. $799,000.00

Gorgeous Home with Incredible 270 degree Lake Views. 4 beds + Den, 4 bath & huge room under 3 car garage. Quartz counter tops throughout, Hardwood, S/S Appliances. 9' Ceilings on main, 10' in huge fully finished walkout basement & unobstructed views. Room for a pool. $3,000 Landscape package for back yard upon possession. Central Air upon possession. HST not included. Vacant, but please Call Steve to view 250-864-7893 MLS#10055884

Special programs for first time BC home buyers.

The real estate prices in BC are high in comparison to much of Canada relative to average income. Which makes it difficult for first time home buyers. Here are some helpful programs that first time home buyers can access to assist them with their first home purchase.

The programs are:
1) Property Transfer Tax Exemption for the first time Home Buyers. This program exempts first time home buyers from paying the BC property transfer tax. Which can save you up to $6,500.00. To receive this exemption you must first qualify
.
2) RRSP First Time Home Buyers Plan. This program allows first time home buyers to loan themselves previously claimed RRSP contributions tax free to assist in the purchase of a home. You have to qualify to use this plan also.

3) First Time Buyers New Home Bonus. This is a limited time rebate introduced with the enhanced HST rebates for first time home buyers buying New Homes and you only have until Mar. 31 2013 for this one. Again you must qualify to use this.

Great Idea!!

Since we all know it is a shame to waste food, the new Central Okanagan Fruit Tree Project wants to change that. The project would like residents with fruit trees to donate the fruit that they can not use to the charity, rather than having it go to waste by falling to the ground or throwing it out.

There will be a picnic and information session to kick off this initiative tomorrow Sunday June 17th from 12 noon to 2 pm at Sutton Glen Park, the green space at 464 Sutton Cres. in Glenmore. 

To RSVP for the picnic, register your fruit tree or trees, sign up as a volunteer or for more information, call Laura at 778.214.5664 or email cofruittreeproject@gmail.com

You can also like them on Facebook at Central Okanagan Fruit Tree Project

February Buyers Survey Results:

The results of OMREB's February 2012 Buyers Survey are in!
A total of 123 respondents participated in this survey – representing 43% of the 285 OMREB sales representatives who acted as Buyers Agents and 32% of the 385 deals closed on behalf of Buyers in February.

FEBRUARY SURVEY SUMMARY

Property Type:

20.7% by First Time Buyers
20.7% of purchases were by Move-Up Buyers
14.0% buying Revenue/Investment Property
13.2% moving from Single Family Home to Strata Unit
6.6% moving into Retirement Home/Seniors Community
4.1% Recreation Property Buyers
3.3% moving from Strata property to Single Family Home

Buyer Type (Family Dynamic):

28.0% Two parent family/children
23.2% Couple without children
16.8% Empty Nesters/Retired
12.8% Single Female
9.6% Single Male
4.8% Single Parent with children

Moving From:

64.8% from Within OMREB Board Area
19.2% from Alberta
9.6% from Lower Mainland/Vancouver Island
4.8% from Other Areas in BC
0.8% from Saskatchewan/Manitoba
0.8% from Eastern Canada/Maritimes
0% from Outside Canada
0% from NWT/Yukon (fifth month reported)

OMREB- Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board.

British Columbians continue to have the Highest Life Expectancy in Canada

British Columbians continue to live long and healthy lives, according to the 2010 Vital Statistics Annual Report from the Ministry of Health. Life expectancy in BC remains the highest in Canada at 81.7 years for 2006-10, up from 81.4. BC's population also grew naturally by 13,647 in 2010, or at rate of 2.8 per thousand. Cancer, is the leading cause of death in BC but the statistics show death rates from the disease are falling, along with those from heart disease, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and multiple sclerosis, while mortality rates for chronic diseases like diabetes have increased slightly from 2009. The government says the death rate from HIV is the lowest since 1995 and BC. is the only province showing a consistent decline in the disease, which is credited in part to the research and treatment efforts of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS.

BC. mothers delivered 43,667 babies in 2010. The vital statistics document also found that just more than half the 2010 births in British Columbia were from mothers aged 30-39 which continues to rise from historical levels. In recent decades there has also been a gradual increase in multiple birth rates in BC., rising from 1.9 per cent of all live births in 1986 to 3.2 per cent in 2010. The number of deaths during the year was 31,143, down slightly from the previous year, and the oldest person to die was 108. 

On a typical day in BC. in 2010, there were 119 births, 86 deaths and 61 marriages. This information comes from the 139th edition of the annual report containing information collected from registrations of births, deaths, and marriages that happened in BC in 2010.